Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
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Water Food and Climate Change. October Surprise. A Shrinking Arc of Instability by ? New Conflicts Over Resources? Good and Bad News. Local Trajectories and Outside Interests. Challenges of Aging Populations.
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Migration Urbanization and Ethnic Shifts. Russia China India and Iran.
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The New Players. China and India. Other Key Players. UpandComing Powers. A World Without the West. Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty? The Dawning of a PostPetroleum Age? Multipolarity without Multilateralism.
How Many International Systems? A World of Networks. Politics Is Not Always Local. As a result of this and other fac- tors. The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by Lack of access to stable supplies of water is reaching critical pro— portions. Climate change is expected to exacerbate resource scarcities.
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For many developing countries. New technologies could again provide solutions. The pace of technological innovation will be key. Even with a favorable policy and funding environment for biofuels. Despite what are seen as long odds now. The greatest possibility for a relatively quick and inexpensive transition during the period comes from better renewable generation sources photovoltaic and wind and improvements in battery technology.
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With many of these technologies. Prospects for Terrorism, Conflict, and Proliferation Terrorism. Terrorism is unlikely to disappear by , but its appeal could diminish if eco— nomic growth continues and youth unemployment is mitigated iii the Middle East. Economic opportunities for youth and greater politi— cal pluralism prohably would dissuade sortie front joining terrorists' ranks. Terrorist groups in will likely be a combination of descendants of long—established groups—that inherit organizational structures.
For those terrorist groups that are active in It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear-weapons capable Iran. The force of ideology is likely to be strongest in the Muslim world—particularly the Arab core. In those countries that are likely to smuggle with youth bulges and weak economic underpinnings—such as Pakistan. Perceptions of energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy sup- plies.
In the worst case, this could result in interstate conflicts if gov- ernment leaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regimes. However, even actions short of war will have important geopolitical consequences. The buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes.
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With water becoming more scarce in Asia and the Middle East. The risk of nuclear weapon use over the next 20 years, although remaining very low, is likely to be greater than it is today as a result of several converging trends. The spread of nuclear technologies and expertise is generating concerns about the potential emergence of new nuclear weapon states and the acquisition of nuclear materials by terrorist groups.
Ongoing low—intensity clashes between India and Pakistan continue to raise the specter that such events could escalate to a broader conflict between those nuclear powers. The possibility of a future disruptive regime change or collapse occurring in a nuclear weapon state such as North Korea also continues to raise questions regarding the ability of weak states to control and secure their nuclear arsenals.
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A future use of nuclear weapons probably would bring about significant geopolitical changes as some states would seek to establish or reinforce security alliances with existing nuclear powers anti others would push for global nuclear disarmament. Global Trends A Transformed World the likelihood of fragmentation occurring over the next two decades, particularly given the wide array of transnational challenges facing the international community. The rising BRIC powers are unlikely to challenge the international system as did Germany and Japan in the 19th and 20th centuries.
They also are likely to want to preserve their policy freedom to maneuver. Existing multilateral institutions—which are large and cumber- some and were designed for a different geopolitical order—will have difficulty adapting quickly to undertake new missions.
Respect for the dissenting views of member nations will continue to shape the agenda of organizations and limit the kinds of solutions that can be attempted. Establishment of such quasi—blocs would have implications for the ability to achieve future global World Trade Organization WTO agreements.
Regional clusters cotild compete in setting trans-regional product standards for information technol— ogy, biotechnology, nanotechnology, intellectual property rights. Intrinsic to the growing complexity o View Full Document. I cannot even describe how much Course Hero helped me this summer. In the end, I was not only able to survive summer classes, but I was able to thrive thanks to Course Hero. Stony Brook University.